Aversion to risk - a humanitarian malady
International risk aversion at government, inter-governmental and aid agency levels has in my estimation led to inertia when it comes to anticipating and preparing for future crises.
There is no doubt that risk-aversion leads to unnecessary high levels of deaths among the most vulnerable people in the world. And unless policymakers at all levels are prepared to take risks in future, it will lead increasingly to deaths which could be saved in more and more parts of the world.
I’ve been involved in consultations with representatives of some 22 governments over the past few months. So many of these governments in Asia - I’m referring to the ASEAN countries - in West Africa, represented by ECOWAS countries - and parts of Latin America, are saying that what they want from us is the technical expertise to enable them to plan strategically for events in their regions. The clear message I received from these government representatives, was that the traditional humanitarian sector – the West if you like – needs to understand it will have to adapt to the changes that are coming about through the rise of greater regionalism and through changing needs and demands of governments of vulnerable countries. We in the West will increasingly be measured by the affected, in terms of providing leading edge science and technology to support developing communities to become more resilient and able to cope better with new types of threat. The criterion by which the international humanitarian community will be measured in future will not be by boots on the ground. Support for prevention and risk reduction are ultimately true reflections of moral commitment to reducing suffering.
So I strongly believe that failure by policymakers to prepare and act strategically to mitigate future risks which we can anticipate indicates an aversion to risk on a global scale. We have to plan strategically for events beyond the normal government and budgetary cycles of organisations with a humanitarian role or responsibility, if we are serious about saving lives in communities in the front line of future threats of far greater dimensions and dynamics than we’ve experienced in the past. We have to take the risk of anticipating and planning for low-probability high-impact events. Past experience is no longer an adequate predictor of future challenges.
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