Estimates of crisis-attributable mortality in South Sudan , December 2013-April 2018: A statistical analysis

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Author(s)
Checchi, F., Testa, A., Warsame, A., Quach, L. and Burns, R.
Pages
45pp
Date published
01 Sep 2018
Type
Research, reports and studies
Keywords
Assessment & Analysis, Conflict, violence & peace, Food security
Countries
South Sudan

Large-scale armed conflict in South Sudan has led to the displacement of about 4.5 million people and severely affected food security and livelihoods. So as to inform the ongoing humanitarian response and provide evidence for conflict resolution efforts, we carried out a statistical regression analysis to estimate (ii) the number of excess deaths attributable to the crisis among people within South Sudan, and (ii) the number of people killed during the war period (December 2013 to April 2018). Our study excludes South Sudanese refugees in other countries.

The South Sudanese population experienced elevated mortality during the war period, particularly in the northeast and southern regions of the country. A high proportion of deaths was due to violence. Our estimates are subject to limitations, including unrealistically narrow confidence intervals, uncertainty around population denominators and likely under-reporting of child deaths. On balance, these may have led to mild to moderate under-estimation. These findings indicate the humanitarian response needs to be strengthened, and that all parties should seek urgent conflict resolution.