Theory of change basics: A primer on theory of change.

Theory of change is a rigorous yet participatory process whereby groups and stakeholders in a planning process articulate their long-term goals and identify the conditions they believe have to unfold for those goals to be met. These conditions are modeled as desired outcomes, arranged graphically in a causal framework.
A theory of change describes the types of
interventions (a single program or coordinated
initiative) that bring about the outcomes depicted in
the outcomes framework map. Each intervention is
tied to an outcome in the causal framework,
revealing the often complex web of activity required
to bring about change. The framework provides a
working model against which to test hypotheses and
assumptions about what actions will best produce
the outcomes in the model.